MOSCOW, April 4. /TASS/. Russian presidential envoy travels to Washington, the global impact of Trump’s new tariffs, and OPEC+ boosts oil production ahead of schedule. These stories topped the headlines in Friday’s newspapers across Russia.
Izvestia: Putin’s special envoy begins new round of consultations with Trump administration
Russia and the US took three steps forward in the negotiation process, said CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and Special Presidential Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries Kirill Dmitriev who visited the US on April 2-3. There he held meetings with key members of the US administration. This was the first visit by a high-ranking Russian official to Washington since 2022. The Russian envoy discussed the possibilities of resuming direct air service between the two countries, a ceasefire in Ukraine as well as cooperation on the Arctic and rare-earth metals. The RDIF head noted that the date of new Moscow-Washington talks will be determined in the near future. That said, in spite of continued Russia-US dialogue, Brussels and Kiev continue to hinder the conflict’s settlement.
"The sanctions issue may be discussed very soon. So far, the situation with lifting the restrictions is complicated but if at least some of the Western sanctions are removed, it will be a major progress," Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Center for Security Studies, told Izvestia.
Despite progress in Russian-US dialogue, external and internal forces continue to undermine the process of the Ukrainian settlement. Ukraine, the EU and even certain groups within the US itself are forming obstacles on the way to normalization. For instance, the Ukrainian leadership, according to experts, above all, sees the talks as a threat to their political positions. This merely shows Kiev’s aspiration to retain its militant posture by repeatedly attempting to disrupt the negotiation process, believes Ivan Loshkarev, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO University. "For the current Ukrainian leadership this is the way to stay in power while progress in negotiations increases the risks of losing it. However, constant violations of the truce are unlikely to alter the general course of the Trump administration’s policy because it has already spent a lot of resources on it, including reputational ones. Against this background, public and behind-the-scenes pressure on Kiev will grow but so far, there is still room for maneuvering between Washington and Brussels as the Ukrainian side’s external sponsors and the attempts of disruption will continue," Loshkarev told Izvestia.
Within the US, the resistance comes from the anti-Russian lobby. Despite the change of the administration, some officials, even within the Republican Party, are still against dialogue with the Russian side.
"Perhaps, statements have been toned down somewhat but overall, there have been no radical changes. It is na·ve to expect a full-fledged ‘de-escalation,’ while the Americans do not perceive the value of normal relations with Russia, nor any real fear of Russia as their equal," Mikhail Mironyuk, associate professor with the Department of Politics and Management at the Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: What Trump’s new tariffs mean for US, Russian, global economy
US President Donald Trump has announced the largest tariffs on practically all US imports in the past 100 years. The base rate will amount to 10% and reciprocal tariffs have been introduced for certain countries based on the trade deficit with them. The US’ new tariff policy has become the most debated topic in the global media and triggered a market reaction which may cause billions of dollars in losses for multinational corporations. Experts polled by Vedomosti are wary that this may destabilize supply chains across the world, accelerate inflation in major economies while the US may face stagnation and recession.
The tariffs may speed up the price increase in the US by 2.5% in the next 2-3 years, Alina Poptsova, a stock market analyst at Alfa-Capital, said. In the short term, while the market is adapting to new realities, consumer demand will cool off due to price hikes while industrial production will be under pressure of growing costs, Poptsova thinks.
Inflation will continue to grow in the US, reaching 3% by the end of 2025, believes Natalya Milchakova of Freedom Finance Global. On the other hand, the US may end up with a reduced trade balance deficit, which will facilitate the inflow of foreign currency and a small drop in major external loans, she added.
An escalating trade war may disrupt supply chains, activate inflation and worsen economic prospects both for the US and global economy, said Olga Belenkaya, chief macroeconomic analyst at Finam.
This process may facilitate the further fragmentation of markets with the shaping of regional trade unions and the decreased role of the US in global trade and in the financial system, Belenkaya believes.
Due to increased de-globalization and the disruption of supply chains, global expenses are growing and the possibility of a new wave of global inflation rises, said Sovcombank Chief Analyst Mikhail Vasilyev. He does not rule out that this will restrict global central banks in lowering rates to support economies.
Russia may encounter the secondary impact of tariffs if the potential slowdown of the global economy affects demand for energy resources and metals, Poptsova noted. According to her, dropping global prices on raw materials will negatively influence export revenues and the ruble.
Vasilyev concurs that the new tariffs will mostly impact Russia via prices on raw materials. Lower currency inflows from export weaken the ruble, which results in higher inflation and the higher key rate, he added.
Russia will benefit from the fact that China, struck by the highest tariffs, may substantially reduce exports of many goods to the US and redirect its commodity flows to the Russian market, Milchakova believes. She also thinks that, following the introduction of higher US tariffs on China and India, BRICS countries may substantially increase their trade with each other. However, the new tariffs will also trigger higher prices for imported components and spare parts and slow down the decline in inflation in Russia, the expert cautioned.
Kommersant: OPEC+ increases oil production ahead of schedule
OPEC+ has expedited the lifting of restrictions on oil production and in May, will increase production volumes by 411,000 barrels per day. This equals three monthly increases. This month, the quota for Russia was raised from the earlier planned 9.03 million to 9.08 million barrels per day. Analysts warn about the risks of dropping global demand for oil due to US tariffs and quotations potentially dropping to $60 per barrel.
Expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Igor Yushkov said that the measure taken by OPEC+ is "detrimental for Russia and highly ill-timed."
According to him, there are risks of plummeting oil demand over tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump which may slow down global trade. If its volumes reduce, this will trigger decreased demand for fuel and the global economy may enter recession for the first time since the pandemic. The decision by OPEC+ also creates additional pressure on the price of oil which, according to Yushkov, may drop to $60 per barrel.
That said, he does not rule out that OPEC+ may reconsider its policy if the price of oil on the global market approaches this mark. In that case, in May, the alliance may delay its decision on increasing production, the expert added.
Kirill Bakhtin, chief analyst at BCS, stated that the alliance’s decision indicates the eight key participants’ strong resolve to reject additional voluntary restrictions approved in early 2024.
He explained that over recent years, OPEC+ countries have been reducing their own production but then were unable to restore volumes because the lost market share was taken up by those outside the alliance. Currently, OPEC+ is leaving this vicious cycle, the analyst believes.
Izvestia: Construction of Turkish military base in Syria alarms Israel
Israel considers Turkey placing its base in Syria a potential threat to its freedom of actions, a source familiar with the issue told Izvestia. Earlier, media outlets reported that Turkey began building a base in Tiyas in the Homs Governorate and plans to station the Hisar air defense missile system there. It was also claimed that Ankara may deploy Russian S-400 systems on Syrian soil, which is possible only with Moscow’s authorization. Amid the increased Turkish military influence, overnight on April 3, Israeli forces carried out extensive shelling attacks on Syria while clashes occurred between Israeli troops and Syrian militants in the Daraa Governorate in Syria’s south.
Escalation between Turkey and Israel in Syria creates new challenges for all the parties involved but at the same time, it underscores the importance of Russia’s military presence as a stabilizing factor. According to Vladimir Akhmedov, a research fellow at the Center for the Study of Common Problems of the Contemporary East at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, earlier Russia played a key role in ensuring security, particularly in Syria’s south where its units were stationed.
"In the summer of 2024, Russia stationed its military on the premises of Syrian units in the south which were supposed to ensure the security of the line in the Golan Heights. The Israelis were pleased because this contained Shiite militias supported by Iran," Akhmedov told Izvestia.
"This exchange between Israel and Turkey again raises the issue of the necessity to retain Russian bases in order to reduce tensions. While Moscow has the status of a security guarantor, the sides are interested in its presence. While the continued escalation and strikes, on the contrary, are fraught with destabilization risks," the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: Hungary leaves International Criminal Court
The Hungarian government has announced its decision to withdraw from the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC) on April 3, the day of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Budapest. Back in 2024, the ICC issued a warrant for Netanyahu’s arrest over "crimes against humanity" during the military operation in the Gaza Strip, which has been underway since October 2023. Netanyahu plans to stay in Hungary until April 6.
Hungary’s actions are a symbolic gesture. According to the Rome Statute, a country ceases to be an ICC member only a year after it notifies of leaving the organization, Alexey Ispolinov, Doctor of Law and international law expert, noted. He pointed out that during this transitional period, the ICC member state is formally not released from its obligations under the Statute.
By deciding to exit the ICC, Budapest continues the policy course on distancing Hungary from international organizations which, in its opinion, limit the country’s sovereignty, said Alexey Drynochkin, a professor of the World Economy Department at MGIMO University. According to the expert, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has long been critical of all institutions based or created in Europe. From the point of view of the Hungarian leadership, these organizations slow down the European Union’s progress, the expert added. Only external forces may prevent Budapest from leaving the ICC, Drynochkin asserted. "The EU still has a serious financial instrument of pressure. In theory, it may freeze the allocation of funds to the Hungarians earmarked for them," he explained.
"With Trump’s arrival in the White House, Orban and Netanyahu feel that they are in a powerful position and have Washington’s support in the policy course against the ICC," said expert on Hungary Artyom Ilyinsky.
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