A lithium processing plant in Goromonzi, 80 kilometers southeast of the capital Harare, Zimbabwe. Photo: VCG

The era of "big oil" has passed its zenith; welcome to the era of "big shovels." This statement, published on the World Economic Forum's website, highlights the significance of critical minerals. Recently, the US and Europe's attempt to acquire rare earth and other resources from Ukraine shows that critical minerals have become a new battleground for multiple countries. To gain more critical minerals, some countries try to form small circles, which may worsen geopolitical divisions. On the other hand, some scholars note that cooperation in the critical minerals field is not only fitting with the ideal of global harmony but also a pragmatic economic strategy.

Uneven distribution of 'six critical minerals'

"As the world's economy and technology transforms, the value of critical minerals has soared and geopolitical competition for access to them is rising," read a Guardian report.

In 2022, the US Geological Service (USGS) published a list of 50 critical minerals vital to US "national security, economy, renewable energy, and infrastructure." These include arsenic for semiconductor manufacturing, beryllium as an alloying agent in aerospace and defense, cobalt, lithium, and graphite for lithium-ion batteries, and tellurium for solar power generation among others. The US Energy Act directed the USGS to update the list of critical minerals at least every three years, according to USGS website. 

On May 23, 2024, the EU's first comprehensive mineral strategy, the Critical Raw Materials Act, took effect. In addition to Europe and the US, many other countries have stipulated their own lists of critical minerals. In 2022, Russia updated its list of critical minerals. Canada has identified 34 critical minerals, of which lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth elements are prioritized for development, according to materials published on their government websites. 

In the article on the World Economic Forum website, it also listed lithium, cobalt, copper, graphite, nickel and rare earth as the "big six."

Li Bing, an assistant researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that, on a global scale, critical minerals are extremely unevenly distributed, being mainly located in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.

Take lithium, one of the "six key minerals," as an example. According to an article on the website of the Australian think tank Lowy Institute, nearly 80 percent of the world's known lithium reserves are distributed in four countries: the "lithium triangle" countries of South America - Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, and Australia.

According to statistics from the German data company Statista, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has the world's largest cobalt reserves. As of 2024, the country's cobalt reserves stood at approximately 6 million metric tons, while the world's total cobalt reserves were around 11 million metric tons.

A previous article titled "Latin America: The World's Copper Stronghold" published by the US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies stated that Latin America has mined nearly half (46 percent) of the world's raw copper.

Graphite is also used to make electric vehicle batteries. Global natural graphite reserves are mainly found in countries like China, Brazil, and Madagascar, according to Statista.  

USGS data shows global rare earth reserves were at about 90 million tons in 2024, with China at 44 million, Brazil at 21 million, and India at 6.9 million. Nickel, a key material for EV batteries, is most abundant in Indonesia and Australia, each with 21 million tons, per a 2023 USGS report.

Age of metal politics

Workers treat copper cathodes in a copper and cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Photo: VCG

The world has entered into an "age of metal politics" after a century of "oil politics." Critical metals have become the new bargaining chips on the geopolitical table, read a Reuters report. 

"Seizing mineral wealth overseas" has become a core foreign policy goal of the Trump administration, the New York Times stated in an article. 

Russia quickly joined the US-Ukraine "metal poker game," stating that if the US is interested, Russia possesses far more rare earths than Ukraine, the Newsweek reported.

According to the New York Times, a recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that of the 50 critical minerals listed by the center, the US relies on imports for 41 of them at rates ranging from 50 percent to 100 percent. 

Ariel Cohen, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, previously wrote in Newsweek in an article titled "Critical minerals emerge as the battlefield of great power competition" that the US was once a global leader in critical mineral production, but increasingly stringent environmental regulations and the shift of operations to low-cost regions have led to a decline in domestic mining and refining capabilities.

Zheng Hongjun, a senior researcher at the China Metallurgical Mining Economy Research Institute, told the Global Times that as China's new energy industry rapidly rises, the US' strategic anxiety has intensified. The US has accelerated efforts in recent years to promote a "shared values" alliance mechanism in the critical minerals sector, attempting to build a new critical minerals supply chain that excludes China under the pretext of "de-risking." 

The EU has little "surplus" in many critical minerals. According to data from the EU's official website, 99 percent of the EU's boron comes from Turkey, and 71 percent of its platinum group metals from South Africa. Due to this strong external dependency, the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act stipulates that the bloc must diversify its supply of critical raw materials by 2030.

According to a report from Euronews in 2024, over the past three years, the European Commission has been quietly signing memoranda of understanding (MoU) with potential critical raw material suppliers, including Canada and Argentina. As of April 2024, the EU had signed 12 such MoUs.

In order to geopolitically compete with other big players, it is quite important that the Critical Raw Materials Act regulation coordinate the needs and demands of different member states, Melanie Müller, senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told Deutsche Welle.

As Africa and Latin America are rich in mineral resources, many countries have flocked to these regions to establish a presence. According to Nikkei Asia, in August 2023, the then Japanese Economy, Trade, and Industry minister Yasutoshi Nishimura visited Zambia and other African countries, hoping to secure critical minerals.

Cooperation rather than 'decoupling'

According to the World Bank, the production of minerals, such as graphite, lithium and cobalt, could increase by nearly 500 percent by 2050, along with the growing demand for clean energy technologies.

A report released by Goldman Sachs in September 2023 indicates that the production of electric vehicle batteries requires on average 200 kilograms of critical minerals per vehicle, roughly six times the amount needed for a conventional car. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, electric vehicles will account for 72 percent of new car sales in the EU and 50 percent in the US, with the potential to reach half of global sales by 2035. 

The International Energy Agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024 shows that, by 2040, the total market value of critical energy transition minerals, such as copper, lithium, cobalt and graphite, will more than double to reach $770 billion, up from approximately $325 billion currently. 

According to the above-mentioned Goldman Sachs report, in terms of upstream supply, there is no immediate danger of the world running out of critical minerals as the known reserves of many minerals are seeing an increase. 

However, Li warned that some countries rich in critical minerals are not producing at high levels due to various factors such as inadequate infrastructure, insufficient funding, and weak transportation capabilities. Furthermore, the supply chain for critical minerals involves multiple stages, with only a few countries possessing the downstream capabilities for smelting, processing, and application.

An article published by the World Economic Forum in August 2024 noted that hundreds of national policies regarding the resilience and production of critical minerals have been introduced in recent years. However, many of these policies are not multilateral in nature and may exacerbate geopolitical divisions. 

Any international strategy that genuinely addresses the issues surrounding critical minerals must place the interests of the Global South at its core. This is crucial, partly because a significant portion of critical minerals is located in these countries. Additionally, the interests of these countries risk being overshadowed by the geostrategic and economic priorities of the developed world, read the article. 

An article published on the Lowy Institute's website in March 2024 warned that the US and its allies have begun exploring strategies for "decoupling" from China in the field of critical minerals. However, this approach overlooks the interdependent nature of modern economies, where the integration of supply chains and the free flow of knowledge and innovation are not just beneficial but essential for global progress on green energy transition. 

A blunt "decoupling" approach might not only fail to ensure the security of critical mineral supply chains but could also jeopardize the achievement of global energy transition and sustainable development goals. Cooperation rather than "decoupling" is not merely an idealistic plea for global harmony but a pragmatic strategy grounded in economic rationalism, according to the article. 

In an era where critical minerals are becoming increasingly important, how should China enhance its mineral security? Li told the Global Times that there are two approaches: domestically, efforts should be made to strengthen mineral exploration to ensure a steady increase in domestic production of critical minerals and to secure core technologies across the entire industry; internationally, there should be increased protection over domestic investments in overseas minerals, as well as strengthened international cooperation. To strengthen international cooperation, focus should be put on enhancing connections with countries rich in critical mineral resources and improving communication within multilateral mechanisms related to energy with other countries, Li said.